How good is QFL Nation at collectively picking rookies? QSN took the 2012 rookie consensus picks (based on the rookie drafts of QFL, Deuce & Thrice – no Quatro) and compared the draft position of each player to their 2014 fantasy points output and concluded that, as a group, we are terrible at picking rookies.

2012 Consensus Rookie Picks

Player QFL Pick # Deuce Pick # Thrice Pick # Average DP
Trent Richardson 2 1 1 1.33
Robert Griffin III 1 4 3 2.67
Doug Martin 3 2 4 3.00
Andrew Luck 5 3 2 3.33
David Wilson 4 5 7 5.33
Russell Wilson NA 6 6 6.00
Justin Blackmon 9 8 5 7.33
Isaih Pead 6 10 8 8.00
Kendal Wright 8 7 10 8.33
Ronnie Hillman 7 11 9 9.00
Michael Floyd 10 14 11 11.67
Alfred Morris 12 NA NA 12.00
Brian Quick 11 9 18 12.67
Lamar Miller 17 13 NA 15.00
Alshon Jeffrey 14 19 12 15.00
Robert Turbin 13 17 16 15.33
Stephen Hill 15 18 14 15.67
Coby Fleener 18 12 17 15.67
Brandon Weeden NA 16 NA 16.00
Ryan Tannehill 24 15 13 17.33
Nick Foles NA 20 15 17.50
Vick Ballard 19 NA NA 19.00
Josh Gordon 16 NA 22 19.00
Mohamed Sanu NA 21 17 19.00
Bryce Brown NA NA 20 20.00
Nick Toon 21 NA NA 21.00
Dwayne Allen NA NA 21 21.00
Reuben Randle 20 22 23 21.67
Chris Givens 22 NA NA 22.00
Ryan Broyles 23 NA NA 23.00
Juron Criner NA NA 24 24.00

If we were perfect, this is how the 2012 rookie draft should have unfolded based on 2014 FP/G.

Average Draft Player 2014 Reg. Season FP/G Rank 2014 Reg. Season FP/G
4 Andrew Luck 2 16.9
6 Russell Wilson 8 14
20 Ryan Tannehill 26 11.69
21 Nick Foles 39 10.47
14 Alshon Jeffrey 57 9.49
14 Lamar Miller 70 8.84
10 Ronnie Hillman 77 8.51
12 Alfred Morris 97 7.82
17 Coby Fleener 121 6.98
9 Kendal Wright 126 6.8
13 Brian Quick 130 6.71
22 Mohamed Sanu 136 6.62
11 Michael Floyd 152 6.3
26 Dwayne Allen 153 6.24
28 Reuben Randle 169 5.99
2 Robert Griffin III 201 5.31
22 Josh Gordon 214 5.09
3 Doug Martin 227 4.85
1 Trent Richardson 237 4.68
19 Brandon Weeden 317 3.06
25 Bryce Brown 331 2.84
26 Nick Toon 332 2.81
16 Robert Turbin 334 2.8
29 Chris Givens 414 1.61
30 Ryan Broyles 516 0.6
5 David Wilson DNP 0
7 Justin Blackmon DNP 0
8 Isaih Pead DNP 0
17 Stephen Hill DNP 0
22 Vick Ballard DNP 0
31 Juron Criner DNP 0

These are the top guys that got “under-drafted”.

Average Draft Real Rank after 3 seasons How Wrong Were We? Player
20 3 17 Ryan Tannehill
21 4 17 Nick Foles
28 15 13 Reuben Randle
26 14 12 Dwayne Allen
22 12 10 Mohamed Sanu
14 5 9 Alshon Jeffrey
14 6 8 Lamar Miller
17 9 8 Coby Fleener

These were the top guys that got “over-drafted”.

Average Draft Real Rank after 3 seasons How Wrong Were We? Player
5 26 -21 David Wilson
7 27 -20 Justin Blackmon
8 28 -20 Isaih Pead
1 19 -18 Trent Richardson
3 18 -15 Doug Martin
2 16 -14 Robert Griffin III
17 29 -12 Stephen Hill
22 30 -8 Vick Ballard

These are the guys we didn’t mis-draft too badly (w/in 3 of actual 2014 rank).

Average Draft Real Rank after 3 seasons How Wrong Were We? Player
4 1 3 Andrew Luck
9 10 -1 Kendal Wright
10 7 3 Ronnie Hillman
11 13 -2 Michael Floyd
13 11 2 Brian Quick
19 20 -1 Brandon Weeden
31 31 0 Juron Criner

Observations:
– Russell Wilson & Nick Foles went undrafted in the QFL
– Alfred Morris went undrafted in Deuce & Thrice

Conclusions:
In conclusion, don’t pay any attention to the 2015 QFL Nation consensus rookies when I post them next August.

Going Forward:
Next, since our collective knowledge sucks, I will work out the best and worst individual teams in QFL Nation at picking rookies. Hopefully I can at least identify an individual team, besides myself, that is worthy of paying attention to.

Additional Reading:
2013 Consensus Rookies
2014 Consensus Rookies

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