Top-8 Best Places for Rookie RBs in 2009

Scouting out the next Chris Johnson starts now for keeper and dynasty league owners preparing for a rookie-only draft this summer. In an earlier post we predicted the top-5 2009 fantasy rookies, but with so much depending on which NFL team actually drafts one of those guys, we really should be predicting the best – and most likely – places these rookies will land.  For our keeper and dynasty league readers, there is no more important subject at this time of year.

In this post we attempt to predict not only the most favorable situations for a young RB to develop and contribute to your keeper or dynasty league franchise for the next three years, but also the most likely. We consider which NFL teams need an RB, and therefore are likely to draft one, and also which teams are best suited to make use of one right away.

One of the things that carries the most weight in predicting who will be the next Chris Johnson is offensive line. Johnson is physically gifted but don’t forget he was also running behind an offensive line that made Kerry Collins look good. LenDale White also helped to spell Johnson (not to mention steal TDs) so a players overall situation is an important factor as well.  There are many other important criteria that we consider in making these predictions including; is it a run first offense? will the passing game open up the running game?  is there a fullback?  is it a committee? You get the idea.

If you see any of the following teams take an RB in April, you should immediately add them to your QBallers watch list:

1. Philadelphia – Westbrook doesn’t have a lot of mileage in terms of total carries, but he is entering his eighth season (he’ll be 30 in September) and is seriously injury prone.  So don’t be surprised if the Eagles draft an RB to address this area.  LeSean McCoy would be the focus of the entire fantasy world knowing that offensive line and overall situation (assuming McNabb sticks, which he should).
2. San Diego – The talk of replacing Tomlinson may be shocking to some accustomed to his dominance for close to a decade, but if you step back and look at the situation you realize the milage on LT2.  He has averaged over 332 carries a season for 8 seasons!  He was a warrior, but there is no argument, he is on the decline, it is, unfortunately, inevitable after all.  That potentially means an RB could get drafted by San Diego and groomed by Tomlinson for a year while learning behind a very good offensive line.  There could be no better keeper/dynasty league prospect.
3. Jets – This is really an ideal situation for a rookie RB if it wasn’t for Favre.  If Favre finally retires and they spend the year developing a QB while meanwhile handing off to a rookie RB who gets to run behind that young, stud-filled offensive line and experienced fullback (please stay Tony Richardson), well, you should take that rookie.  Chris Wells and a fullback like Tony Richardson could kill some people. But Wells, who is best suited to run behind a fullback, most likely won’t fall to the Jets’ 17th pick.
4. Arizona – The Cardinals have a pretty good offensive line and if Warner comes back next season (big if, I hear) the rookie RB everyone is talking about them drafting could be really good.  Hightower was never viewed as an every down back, even last year when they drafted him, and Edge is old, as is well documented.
5. Giants – The Giants will need to replace Derrick Ward after he leaves via free agency this off-season and our bet is the backup to Brandon Jacobs will play a lot in 2009.  After Jacobs gets paid big-time, our feeling is he will start missing more games due to injuries (like he had a habit of diong in 2006 and 2007).  That leaves the highly desirable situation of a rookie RB getting drafted by the Giants with a lot of time to run behind one of the greatest offensive lines in history.  We are not forgetting Bradshaw, we just don’t think he will be able to carry the load if it came down to it and the Giants know it.
6. Denver – Denver RBs will no longer hold the same clout as Shanahan era RBs once held, but it’s still the same offensive line and great overall situation.  No one can be sold on Ryan Torain’s durability or any of the other 5 RBs that started for Denver last year so the likelihood of them drafting an RB is probably pretty high.
7. New England – Maroney is a disappointment (which we told you to expect before last season) and no one on the roster is an every down back.  Not that this has ever been a run-first team, even when Tom Brady was out of the picture, but if New England picks up even a late round RB you have to monitor the guy due offensive line and overall situation awesomeness.
8. Tampa Bay – The Bucs’ great offensive line should make up for the shaky QB situation and new coach, should they draft an RB in April.  Cadillac Williams and Earnest Graham make an early round pick unlikely, but you could do worse taking a flyer with a late round rooie-only draft pick if they do.

Notable Situations to Avoid:

Cincinnati – This could be an easy situation to get sucked into with Carson Palmer and TJ Housh, but Housh might be gone this year and the offensive line is one of the worst in the NFL.  Carson can’t win it all by himself and he still has to prove his elbow is healed too.

Cleveland – Don’t believe the hype, if there is any, surrounding a rookie running back drafted by the Browns.  They always stink.  The Browns will have to replace Jamal Lewis soon because of his mileage so many will be tempted to pounce on the rookie that replaces him. Don’t be one of those people.  One of the benefits of playing in a ten year old keeper league is the ability to spot long term trends.  Yes, Cleveland has a great offensive line, but rookie RBs on the Browns always stink no matter what.  Travis Prentice, James Jackson, William Green, Lee Suggs and Jerome Harrison were all RBs drafted in the first three rounds by the Browns since 2000 and none have panned out.  It’s more than a trend, it’s just the way it is in Cleveland.