Why should you avoid Ladainian Tomlinson and Larry Johnson?  And other guys going in the first few rounds who will probably disappoint you this year (and will definitely disappoint you for the next few years if you are in a keeper league):
LaDainian Tomlinson – There is a great argument for taking Tomlinson in the first round. Namely that he runs behind one of the best O-lines in the league and is looking at a very cake schedule this year. However, if you are in a keeper league, you should consider Tomlinson’s 2,365 career total rush attempts and he turns 29 in June. If you do draft him, a good strategy would be to trade him after 8 games (or so) while his perceived future value is still very high. While LT has been extremely durable over his career, not even the best RBs last much longer than what he already has. Consider Marshall Faulk’s 2,836 total career rushing attempts before retirement, Priest Holmes’ 1,780, Eddie George’s 2,865 and Corey Dillon’s 2,618.
Larry Johnson – LJ should not be going in the first round this year. He is not a guy you can depend on anymore. Until the Chiefs rebuild their O-line and can field some kind of threat at QB he is no more than a 4th round pick at best. Not even his fairly easy schedule in 2008 is enough to compensate. Over the next few years, if you see the Chiefs truly rebuild their O-line, then start to think about LJ again.
Willie Parker – When Pittsburgh drafted Mendenhall they sent a clear message to fantasy owners: Fast Willie Parker’s monopoly on carries is over. It’s not like Parker scored touchdowns anyway, besides Pittsburgh has a brutal schedule against the run this year. His days as a top 20 RB are over.
Laurence Maroney – Maroney is young and has been called “entrenched†as the starting RB, so it is tempting to assume he will automatically be a great keeper option. Unfortunately for Maroney, this is a pass-first team and he has only caught 26 passes over 27 games. He’s also only averaging 180 carries a season. Unless you see the Pats start to commit to running the ball, Maroney will disappoint you.
Ronnie Brown – He’s coming off a major knee injury that can take two years to fully heal. He’s playing on a rebuilding team that plays from behind a lot, and, believe it or not, Ricky Williams is a serious contender to share rushing duties. Ronnie Brown is not a safe pick in the first few rounds of your draft this year. He may be a late round guy to stash on your bench for the 2009 season, though you should monitor the progress of Jalen Parmele closely if that is your plan.
Jamal Lewis – He actually should have a good year this year behind a great offensive line, but he will be 29 in August, has a brutal schedule and has averaged over 300 carries a season for 7 seasons. That’s a lot of mileage for an RB in a keeper league format.
Travis Henry – Especially with the recent signing of Michael Pittman to the Broncos, one can now legitimately question the fantasy value of Travis Henry. The team also has Selvin Young on the roster and drafted Ryan Torain. Also Henry will be 30 in October. This is not a player in a favorable situation that you should draft in the first few rounds.
Edgerrin James – Going on his tenth season in the league his mileage is extremely high with 2,849 total rush attempts and the Cardinals O-line is only okay. He might have a year left, but do you want to gamble your team on it with a high pick?
Shades
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